Interesting article

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gomer Einstein
  • Start date Start date
things are going to get very interesting once the brl of crude hits
$100.....
 
Gomer said:
I have come to respect the posters in this discussion room, a more
thoughtful, worldly and intellectual lot than most other automotive
NG's.
I'd like to share an article I read a few months ago which I found as
interesting as it is disturbing, and didn't see any reason to doubt
anything it says. Like to hear any comments, etc.
I submit it here:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pag...
Click to expand...

At the moment, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices in the US are well below historic highs.
See the artricle in the NY Times at
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/13/n...&en=aa3c72d58b2b4f57&ei=5094&partner=homepage.

When we really run out of cheap oil is a question, but when it does it will require a
large change in economies and life styles in all advanced countries. Sadly, governments
aren't doing much to make the transition smoother. Politicians like to defer tough
problems until after the next election - and then the next one after that - an so forth
until there is an unavoidable crisis.
 
I posted this in another forum and it is usually misconstrued as a
lament about the current rising fuel prices. It's not.
Because ironically, I pay no attention the price of fuel, never have;
and as I type this I couldn't tell you to the nearest twenty cents how
much a gallon of gasoline costs. When I need more I pull into the
closest place that sells it and fill up.
What I find remarkable is that so much of this finite resource is
gobbled up and naturally it's got to run out sometime, but nobody seems
to believe it or care.
Or they think it's waaay in the future and we'll have plenty of time
to convert to something else (as though there were anything to convert
TO).
Not to mention the events we're likely to see, in our lifetime if not
in the next decade, as nations scramble for the last bit, etc.
 
Gomer Einstein said:
I posted this in another forum and it is usually misconstrued as a
lament about the current rising fuel prices. It's not.
Because ironically, I pay no attention the price of fuel, never have;
and as I type this I couldn't tell you to the nearest twenty cents how
much a gallon of gasoline costs. When I need more I pull into the
closest place that sells it and fill up.
What I find remarkable is that so much of this finite resource is
gobbled up and naturally it's got to run out sometime, but nobody seems
to believe it or care.
Or they think it's waaay in the future and we'll have plenty of time
to convert to something else (as though there were anything to convert
TO).
Not to mention the events we're likely to see, in our lifetime if not
in the next decade, as nations scramble for the last bit, etc.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure we'll ever really run out, it will become prohibitively
expensive long before that happens. It would be nice if there were some
better alternatives out there though.
 
Yeah, nice! Beautifully naive article.
Yes, oil will run out and maybe we will have to work harder for a while,
until the next source of cheap energy is found. Make no mistake about
it, the only reason we don't have particularly viable alternative
sources at this point is that it hasn't been economically feasible to
develop them while oil was cheap.

J.
 
Gomer said:
I have come to respect the posters in this discussion room, a more
thoughtful, worldly and intellectual lot than most other automotive
NG's.
I'd like to share an article I read a few months ago which I found as
interesting as it is disturbing, and didn't see any reason to doubt
anything it says. Like to hear any comments, etc.
I submit it here:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.NewsArchive&pag...
Click to expand...

I don't see quite as bleak of an outlook as the article puts forth, but
I also think that the vast majority of people in the world (not just the
US) have no idea how much they have come to assume plentiful cheap energy.

Oddly enough, the best thing which can happen is what is happening right
now, a steady upward rise in the price of oil. The various
alternatives all require that higher prices be paid in order to work.
Cheap oil has kept competing technologies at a very small scale.

Consider the fact that about 10% of the energy used in the US is used to
heat domestic hot water for our showers, washing machines and dishes.
Making water hot is an ideal application for very cheap solar solutions
and is an order of magnitude easier than is generating electricity from
solar ... yet the vast majority of water is heated with natural gas,
heating oil or electricity. Why don't we nail that problem right
away????? The suburban homes which the article trashes can easily
support solar hot water systems on the roofs. We have one on our house
which has been in operation since 1981 and it provides the vast majority
of our hot water needs.

There is also no reason for people to be commuting to work in sub-30 mpg
vehicles TODAY. The manic rush to bigger vehicles and the modern
horsepower wars have simply recreated the crazy automotive days of the
1960s all over again. Whatever lessons were learned in the oil embargos
of the 70s (I lived through 'em) have been completely and totally
forgotten. CAFE is a joke and has failed. Bring on high prices, at
some point people will be forced to notice the big holes in their pockets.

Volvo is one of the many companies which has completely engaged in the
bigger-faster wars and has trashed fuel economy along the way.

The XC90-V8 should embarass everyone!

John
 
Though I agree with some of the concepts the author of the Rolling
Stone piece puts forward, I think his overall view is foolishly
pessimistic. Pretty much everyone can agree that fossil fuels represent
a dwindling resource and that much effort is needed, soon if not
immediately, to find effective alternatives. That's about where this
guy and I part ways.

His future of a neofeudal wasteland in which no one can travel, cities
are laid waste and the southwest is abandoned is pretty far-fetched.
Reading his article you can see the obvious contempt for the things he
predicts will be destroyed, and that his "logic", to sully the word, is
purely based on the things he doesn't like getting the justice he feels
they deserve. This is perfectly clear in his statements about the
south-eastern part of the US, where he basically says the residents are
all gun-toting maniacs incapable of working together to solve a common
problem.

This article is the worst sort of fear-mongering hyperbole and this man
is selling bad ideas wrapped in snide rhetoric as facts. A quick review
of his website destroys any hint of credibility the man has. This is
the same kind of nonsense we saw in the late 1990s when everyone was
oh-so-positive the world was going to end through computer
malfunctions, and self-proclaimed experts proclaimed that humanity
would be doomed the instant we lost the convenience of a single
resource.


-Randolph d'Amore
'01 S80 2.9
 
someone will comw up w/a new source of energy...it
is just a matter of time & $$...."the waitin' is the hardest
part".......
 
The story is no doubt interesting, but I've seen politics infuse other car
groups through issues like this. It isn't pretty. In the Yahoo Prius group
this sort of thing is the norm and it gets in the way of actual car stuff.
There are even people there who insist buying a Prius is actually a
political statement. Of course, their politics don't match mine at all....

Mike
 
There is also no reason for people to be commuting to work in sub-30 mpg
vehicles TODAY. The manic rush to bigger vehicles and the modern
horsepower wars have simply recreated the crazy automotive days of the
1960s all over again. Whatever lessons were learned in the oil embargos
of the 70s (I lived through 'em) have been completely and totally
forgotten. CAFE is a joke and has failed. Bring on high prices, at
some point people will be forced to notice the big holes in their pockets.

Volvo is one of the many companies which has completely engaged in the
bigger-faster wars and has trashed fuel economy along the way.

The XC90-V8 should embarass everyone!
Click to expand...


I dunno, from my perspective Volvo has steadily improved economy, with the
exception of them jumping on the SUV bandwagon. As much as I love my 240 and
740, neither gets 30 mpg, the oldest I've dealt with was a 164 that barely
got 18 mpg, as far as I know an 850 and some of the other newer ones will
get 30+.
 
Michael Pardee said:
The story is no doubt interesting, but I've seen politics infuse other car
groups through issues like this. It isn't pretty. In the Yahoo Prius group
this sort of thing is the norm and it gets in the way of actual car stuff.
There are even people there who insist buying a Prius is actually a
political statement. Of course, their politics don't match mine at all....
Click to expand...


I still don't understand the hype around the Prius and similar cars. I'm
sure they drive just fine, but the 40 mpg fuel economy just doesn't impress
me. My family had a Diesel car in 1982 that got nearly 60 mpg and unlike the
vast majority of Diesel cars we got over here it was quite drivable and much
less expensive than a hybrid. Also it didn't have several $K worth of toxic
batteries to replace in 10 years. Yeah hybrids are technologically neat, but
IMHO they're just not a real solution for anything just yet. Perhaps if they
came out with a hybrid using a small turbodiesel engine it'd have something
to offer.
 
Didn't those Geo (now Chevy) Metro 3-cylinder gasoline cars get around
50 mpg (with the 5 speed stick)?
And I understand they have respectable passing power as well.
I don't know about the newer ones--or do they even still make the 3
cyls?
A friend of mine had a small fleet of them for his windshield repair
business, several of them went over 300k miles--hard to believe for such
a high-revving engine.
Incidentally, I drove past a business which had two of them for sale a
couple months ago. I've wanted to try to snag one for cheap if I could
but I didn't have time to stop and check them out that day.
Called them the next morning and some one had come in and bought BOTH
of them!
I'm not so sure I wouldn't have ended up doing the same thing.
 
James Goforth said:
Didn't those Geo (now Chevy) Metro 3-cylinder gasoline cars get around
50 mpg (with the 5 speed stick)?
And I understand they have respectable passing power as well.
I don't know about the newer ones--or do they even still make the 3
cyls?
A friend of mine had a small fleet of them for his windshield repair
business, several of them went over 300k miles--hard to believe for such
a high-revving engine.
Incidentally, I drove past a business which had two of them for sale a
couple months ago. I've wanted to try to snag one for cheap if I could
but I didn't have time to stop and check them out that day.
Called them the next morning and some one had come in and bought BOTH
of them!
I'm not so sure I wouldn't have ended up doing the same thing.
Click to expand...

A friend of mine up in Canada had a turbo version, it wasn't called a Metro
but it was the same thing. I knew someone else with a standard Metro that
had over 250K on it, it was certainly not in tiptop condition but it worked
well for his pizza delivering for several years. I sure wouldn't want to be
in a crash in one of those things though.
 
James Sweet said:
I still don't understand the hype around the Prius and similar cars. I'm
sure they drive just fine, but the 40 mpg fuel economy just doesn't
impress
me. My family had a Diesel car in 1982 that got nearly 60 mpg and unlike
the
vast majority of Diesel cars we got over here it was quite drivable and
much
less expensive than a hybrid. Also it didn't have several $K worth of
toxic
batteries to replace in 10 years. Yeah hybrids are technologically neat,
but
IMHO they're just not a real solution for anything just yet. Perhaps if
they
came out with a hybrid using a small turbodiesel engine it'd have
something
to offer.
Click to expand...
Hybrids are in their infancy, so they are not yet something to knock your
socks off - at least in mass market models. But economy is only one facet of
their magic. The essence of hybridization is to make acceleration
performance independent of engine power. After all, using a 250 hp engine to
move a passenger car through town is not good design. Since the electric
part is most effective at low speeds, the off-the-line performance of a
Prius is surprising. Our 2002 (which has less power than the 2004 and later
models) goes into wheelspin control mode if I get too enthusiastic on wet
streets, or on dry streets when making turns. Even at that, it averages
economy in the upper 40s mpg.

Concept and prototype cars show what can be done with the technology even
now. The Honda Dualnote concept car
(http://world.honda.com/Tokyo2001/auto/DUALNOTE/) combines 400hp and
calculated 40 mpg into a sedan. In a Popular Mechanics article the Honda
engineers described the low-end performance as equivalent to a 600hp
conventional power train - which made it a good thing all wheels had their
share of the electric assist. Even the Humvee has been experimentally
hybridized (http://www.evworld.com/archives/reports/humvee99.html) to double
the range and cut the 0-60 mph time from 14 seconds to 7 seconds. The hill
climbing speed is also doubled, and the hybrid is capable of up to 30 miles
silent running - an advantage on the battlefield.

Since our 765T has a lead-acid battery that has been replaced countless
times already, I don't think the battery issue is significant.
(Interestingly, the Dualnote used ultracapacitors for storage instead of
batteries.) BTW - the Prius has *much* stronger accelerator response than
the 765T until the turbo spools up. That won't come as a surprise to anybody
who has driven a 740/760T!

Mike
 
Hybrids are in their infancy, so they are not yet something to knock your
socks off - at least in mass market models. But economy is only one facet of
their magic. The essence of hybridization is to make acceleration
performance independent of engine power. After all, using a 250 hp engine to
move a passenger car through town is not good design. Since the electric
part is most effective at low speeds, the off-the-line performance of a
Prius is surprising. Our 2002 (which has less power than the 2004 and later
models) goes into wheelspin control mode if I get too enthusiastic on wet
streets, or on dry streets when making turns. Even at that, it averages
economy in the upper 40s mpg.
Click to expand...


My point was just that, they're in their infancy and not yet very
impressive. If they want to impress me they need to make something that gets
at least double the economy of current hybrids while still having reasonable
performance. The performance of the Diesel Topaz we had in the 80's was not
bad at all, especially compared to other Diesel cars.

Since our 765T has a lead-acid battery that has been replaced countless
times already, I don't think the battery issue is significant.
(Interestingly, the Dualnote used ultracapacitors for storage instead of
batteries.) BTW - the Prius has *much* stronger accelerator response than
the 765T until the turbo spools up. That won't come as a surprise to anybody
who has driven a 740/760T!
Click to expand...

A $50 lead acid battery replaced every 4-5 years is nothing compared to $4K
worth of highly toxic nickel hydride batteries. As for accelerator response,
it's adaquate on most cars, more power is always fun but not really
nessesary. I drove a 700 Turbo once with a garret and automatic and it's an
awful combination, manual gearbox is the *only* way to go with those big old
Garrett turbos, the newer Mitsubishi and smaller Garretts are much more
tolerable but even those are a little sluggish with a slushbox. Mine with
Mits turbo and manual tranny has no perceptible turbo lag.
 
James said:
A $50 lead acid battery replaced every 4-5 years is nothing compared to $4K
worth of highly toxic nickel hydride batteries. As for accelerator response,
it's adaquate on most cars, more power is always fun but not really
nessesary. I drove a 700 Turbo once with a garret and automatic and it's an
awful combination, manual gearbox is the *only* way to go with those big old
Garrett turbos, the newer Mitsubishi and smaller Garretts are much more
tolerable but even those are a little sluggish with a slushbox. Mine with
Mits turbo and manual tranny has no perceptible turbo lag.
Click to expand...

That's definitely the big problem with hybrids. What's going to happen
when the multi-thousand dollar battery packs start to fail out of
warranty? We know the price and durability of that type of battery in
laptop computers, which you would think would be an easier life
(relatively constant power drain, no temperature extremes) than in
automotive applications. It's not like you could ignore the bad
battery, as it's needed to start the car (which presumably would still
shut down every time you came to a stop), and since they all operate at
well over 100 volts, I wouldn't want to be messing about with booster
cables either!

--
Mike F.
Thornhill (near Toronto), Ont.

Replace tt with t (twice!) and remove parentheses to email me directly.
(But I check the newsgroup more often than this email address.)
 
Mike F said:
That's definitely the big problem with hybrids. What's going to happen
when the multi-thousand dollar battery packs start to fail out of
warranty? We know the price and durability of that type of battery in
laptop computers, which you would think would be an easier life
(relatively constant power drain, no temperature extremes) than in
automotive applications. It's not like you could ignore the bad
battery, as it's needed to start the car (which presumably would still
shut down every time you came to a stop), and since they all operate at
well over 100 volts, I wouldn't want to be messing about with booster
cables either!
Click to expand...

The track record has been good so far - AFAIK there has been no hybrid
battery failure in a Prius except from outside damage (one battery ECU went
insane and overcharged the battery, one had a long screw run into it when a
stereo installer got careless.) The founder of the Yahoo Prius group has
174K miles on his the last I saw, and although he is on his third set of
shocks the battery is still going strong. There is a diagnostic screen
available for those who know how to access it that gives cell voltage for
each cell. Considering there are already a number of batteries available
from wrecked Priuses and the cells are individually replaceable, I don't
forsee that anybody is likely to buy a new one. Toyota does pay a $200
bounty for any that are returned for recycling.

I was apprehensive at first, too. I did a lot of research before making the
leap 3 years ago. When I considered the 8 year, 100K mile hybrid system
warranty I realized there are at least a half dozen parts in any modern car
that may be worth more to replace than the car is worth at that point. And
the battery is not only designed for longevity (unlike portable electronics
batteries, which are designed for rapid charge, high capacity and a short,
spectacular existence), it is also coddled. The state-of-charge is kept
within very conservative limits - 40% to 80% charge IIRC - and the charging
and discharge voltages and currents are carefully controlled. The battery
pack has a cooling fan and temperature warnings that restrict the
charge/discharge rate. The battery is also smaller than you might think;
with the steel case the one behind the rear seat back in our early Prius
weighs 110 lbs.

If you Google "prius battery fail" you will get nearly 12000 hits. Looking
through them you will see most are speculation about when they will fail,
how much it would cost to repair them, what will happen.... I doubt there is
even one of them about a battery actually failing. If you Google "honda
transmission fail" you will get over 60000 hits, mostly about why the
transmissions fail, what to do about the failed transmissions.... And the
transmissions in question (automatics for 6 cylinder engines in a particular
range of recent model years) are about the same price as a brand new battery
pack for a Prius.

Mike
 
Michael Pardee said:
Hybrids are in their infancy, so they are not yet something to knock your
socks off - at least in mass market models. But economy is only one facet
of their magic. The essence of hybridization is to make acceleration
performance independent of engine power.
Click to expand...
<snip>

I agree with most of what you say. But the essential feature of a hybrid
for city driving is regenerative braking. Capturing the car's kinetic energy
and then restoring it as the car accelerates back up to speed is what allows
high city MPG. And it shouldn't take a very large battery for that.

Add me to the list of people who would love to see a Diesel/electric hybrid.
 
Just out of curiosity, what's the fuel efficiency of an aircraft
carrier? How about a fleet of them? What about fighter jet? What about
a fleet of aircraft carriers full of fighter jets?

Any chance we'll see any of those go hybrid?

Just wondering.
blurp
 
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